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EUR/USD trades on Friday closed up. Due to a revival of the euro/pound cross, the buyers managed to raise the rate to 1.0673. After the publication of American stats the rate crumbled to 1.0596, covering the day’s growth. By trade close the price had bounced from the session minimum, but during Asian trading it returned back to it.

Market expectations:

Trading on Monday began with the rise of the USD. Gaps took place for the euro/dollar and pound/dollar. The GBP lost out throughout the market after an article published by the Sunday Times spoke of PM May’s intention to carry out a hard Brexit. She is ready to leave the single market in order to take control of British borders.

The euro didn’t fall that much due to the growth of the cross. But something tells me that the euro will shift towards the lower line of the A channel. Monday’s target is 1.0567.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 13:00, Eurozone November balance of trade;
  • 21:30, BoE’s Carney to speak;
  • US: Martin Luther King Day.

Technical analysis:

Euro/ rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView dollar

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.0565, maximum 1.0636 (current Asian), close: 1.0581.

Market volatility on Friday was high, since the euro/pound was creating noise for the key pair.

Today, 16th January, is a state holiday in the US: Martin Luther King Day. Due to this liquidity will be low.

The euro rate fell from a maximum of 1.0673 to 1.0596. The fall packed in at 67 degrees. From here the bounce was 45 degrees. Taking into account the morning’s opening and it being the first trading day of the week, I expect the euro/dollar to fall to 90 degrees at 1.0570.

Keep an eye on the euro/pound. If any news comes out contradicting that of the Sunday Times article, the euro/pound will flip upside down. A fall of the rate means pressure for the euro. I reckon that the euro will shift to the lower line of channel A. The target for Monday is 1.0567/70.

source - http://alpari.com/en/analytics/reviews/market_sessions/17736_16012017/

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