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Yesterday’s Trading:

By the end of Wednesday the euro/dollar had renewed to the U4 at 1.1042. Growth for the pair exceeded one figure. There was no news yesterday to put the dollar down. More long positions on the dollar were closed yesterday as they have been since the ECB declined to ratchet up their efforts and loosen their monetary policy.

Traders who have been buying dollars all year are patiently waiting for the Fed to up their base rate and the regulator has been making them wait since April of this year due to the weak macroeconomic data.

Main news of the day (EET):

  • 10:30, SNB interest rate decision;
  • 11:30, UK balance of trade for October;
  • 14:00, BoE interest rate decision and asset purchases. At the same time we will get a look at the Bank’s minutes;
  • 15:30, US initial unemployment benefit applications;
  • 20:30, Mark Carney to speak;
  • 21:00, US monthly budget report (November).

Market Expectations:

The focus for Thursday is on the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England.

The euro/dollar is at the top of the MA channel. Due to this, I expect the pair to renew its maximum and return to the LB at 1.0975.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: 1.1050, minimum: 1.0975, close: 1.1000;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 103 points (4 figures).

At the moment we can see my previous forecast working its magic for the euro. Since the hourly stochastic is already down, I expect to see a renewal of the maximum and a bounce to the LB. Today we need to keep an eye on how the euro/pound does. Volatility will build after the BoE’s minutes come out. If there are more (than one) MPC members who want to up the rate, the pound/dollar will shoot up by another 100 points and this will send the euro/pound right down. Due to this, the euro could be down against the dollar.

Euro analysis for 10 December 2015


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