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Fundamental News: October 25, 2013


The Bureau of Economic Analysis in the United States reported on Thursday that Trade Balance went nearly unchanged in August compared to July, registering a $38.8 billion trade deficit. Exports reached $1899.2 billion while imports reached $228 billion.


US Unemployment Claims for the prior week came in more than forecast, 350,000 compared to the 343,000 median expectation. The Department of Labor also disclosed that unemployment insurance weekly claims in the week ending October 12 turned out to be higher than initially reported, 362,000 versus 358,000.


Markit announced yesterday that Flash Manufacturing PMI declined by 1.7 points to 51.1 in October, a 12-month low.


The latest JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary) Job Openings report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed an increase to 3.88 million in August, up from 3.81 million back in July. Not much changed have been seen in the separations rate (3.2 percent) as well as the hires rate (3.3 percent).


Today, Japan’s Statistics Bureau said the Tokyo Core CPI rose 0.3 percent year-on-year in September. The National Core Consumer Price Index, meanwhile, increased 0.7 percent during the same period.


In Europe, the Ifo Institute for Economic Research declared German Ifo Business Climate eased slightly in October. The index declined to 107.4 from 107.7, its first decline in 6 months.


M3 Money Supply eased to 2.1 percent in September, after posting 2.3 percent in August, according to the latest data out of the European Central Bank.


In the United Kingdom, the Office for National Statistics said economic growth improved in the third quarter of this year, as the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product grew 0.8 percent.


Before the week closes, the market will await the release of US Durable Goods Orders and the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.


Commodities News


Gold topped out in the mid-North American session yesterday. Price eased since the $1,351 high has been reached, and price is now trading in the $1,330s. Bulls rejoice as they will likely have their second consecutive bullish weekly close later today.



Oil declined further yesterday, but late-North American session traders decided to prop up price after seeing price fall for four straight days. Price peeked below $96 before it reversed higher to close the day above $97. It’s a seller’s week, obviously, but buyers can still erase some of the losses in the today’s remaining hours. A close below $98 would favor bears, but they are up to challenge the consolidation area (as wide as $7 from $90-$97) from this point on.

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