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Fundamental News: October 15, 2013


According to the October minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting, members observed a more positive global economic situation and growth of Australia’s key trading partners continue around the long-term average. Softer consumption, members noted, led to the weakness in the labor market. As to rate cuts, members do not discount rate cuts in the future although they said that it isn’t imminent.


Other than the RBA Meeting Minutes, Asia has been pretty quiet earlier today.


In the United Kingdom, the Office for National Statistics reported that Consumer Price Index remained at 2.7 percent in September, but Producer Price Index Input declined for the second month, this time by 1.2 percent. Meanwhile, Retail Price Index eased slightly to 3.2 percent from 3.3 percent in the prior month.


ZEW Economic Sentiment data for Germany and the Euro-area were released at the same time. Germany’s sentiment index rose above the 50 level to 52.8, better than the 49.2 median expectation by analysts. On the other hand, the Euro-area’s index improved from 58.6 to 59.1.


Later today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will release the latest Empire State Manufacturing Index data.


Commodities News


After a slow weekly start, Gold bears are trading actively today and they have just reached new lows ($1,251) as of this writing. There was an initial bounce towards the high-$1,260s but we expect potential sellers lurking and waiting to strike at higher prices. The line in the sand remains at $1,300.



Oil is clinging to the $102s (now holding on just below the $102 level) but a sense of anticipation for a breakout is mounting here. With a load of resistance at the topside, the path of least resistance seems to be to the downside. That is, unless bulls could keep the $101 level fully armored from all attacks. Bulls need to protect that level and keep the pressure at $103-$104.

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