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Fundamental News: June 27, 2013


The Bureau of Economic Analysis in the United States declared Wednesday that Gross Domestic Product climbed less than expected during the first quarter of this year. Based on the third estimate released by BEA, real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.8 percent. The growth is mainly led by favorable contributions from private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and residential fixed investment. Notably, both exports and imports decreased. Final GDP Price Index grew 1.2 percent.


Today, Statistics New Zealand reported that Trade balance grew much less than analysts have expected. NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade grew NZD71 million, much weaker than the NZD412 million median forecast. Trade Balance growth has declined for the third straight reading, with the growth weakness in May pointed to the fall of exports by 7.8 percent. Exports of crude oil, meat and edible offal, mechanical machinery and equipment led the export decline. On the other hand, significant offsetting increase was done by exports of logs, wood, and wood articles, particularly pine logs. New Zealand’s main export commodity, milk powder, cheese, and butter, only contributed 1.5 percent gain or NZD41 million.


In Europe, Germany’s Unemployment Change data showed a decline of 12,000 in June, according to a report released by Destatis earlier today. This was a surprised drop (first drop in 5 months) in the number of jobless Germans, and bolsters the view of a potential recovery for Europe’s largest economy is in the offing.


Europe’s M3 Money Supply for May grew in line with expectations, according to the European Central Bank. M3 rose 2.3 percent, following a 3.2 percent advance in April.


In the United Kingdom, Office for National Statistics reported the latest releases of the Current Account and Final Quarterly GDP data. Current Account declined further in the first quarter of 2013, GBP14.5 billion, worse compared to the median expectation for a GBP11.9 billion decline. The previous quarter, however, was revised to -GBP13.6 billion from -GBP14 billion. Final GDP grew 0.3 percent, similar to the revised GDP for the prior quarter.


During the North American session, the market will be greeted by a host of economic data, including US Unemployment Claims, Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending and Personal Income, Pending Home Sales. The 2-day EU Economic Summit starts today.



Commodities News


The $56 decline in Gold yesterday definitely had a lot of bulls licking their wounds, with the fall now closing in on the $1,200 level. A weak rebound has ensued so far, and this should dramatically change if bulls want to make a significant recovery and avert further disaster. $1,000-$1,150 remains at serious risk.



Oil sellers tried to sink price by $2 yesterday, but buyers swooped in to its rescue. This support from buyers enabled to turn this commodity’s fate around, at least for now, closing the day on the positive and well above the $95 level. Currently, price advance has continued, albeit at a weak pace. Bulls should aim for mid-$97s soon.

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