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Fundamental News: June 24, 2013


Statistics Canada delivered the Retail Sales report last Friday, and it showed a marginal 0.1 percent gain to CAD39.5 billion in April, following a flat reading back in March. Improved sales were reported in 6 out of 11 subsectors, and this comprised 51 percent of the total retail sales. The sales advance was led by motor vehicle and parts dealers, with a notable growth in sales at new dealers for the fourth straight month. General merchandise stores and electronics and appliances stores also contributed gains. On the other hand, gasoline station sales declined 2.9 percent as pump prices eased in April. Location-wise, sales reportedly grew the most in Alberta, and fell the most in Quebec. Core Retail Sales (ex-Autos) eased 0.3 percent.


Canada CPI grew 0.7 percent on a year-on-year basis in May, led by improved shelter costs particularly natural gas. The Consumer Price Index gain in May follows a 0.4 percent rise in April. Natural gas prices advanced throughout the country, led by Alberta. Five out of the eight major CPI components advanced, while eight provinces posted advances.


Today, the sole important economic release came in the form of Germany’s Ifo Business Climate. Ifo Institute for Economics Research reported that the business index edged up to 105.9 in June, a minimal gain from May’s 105.7 reading. Analysts were expecting a 106.0 reading. According to the report, companies remain optimistic for the future.


In less than two hours from now, Belgium NBB Business Climate Index will be published.


Commodities News


Gold buyers failed to touch the $1,400 for the second week last week, and this led to a price plunge of $120 last week that burst through the $1,300 level. Today, that level continues to confine any upside movements and we could see further consolidation in this lackluster session. A move back above $1,300 is highly critical for the bulls, while a thrust through $1,400 would significantly change their faith.


Similarly, Oil plummeted last week, creating a $6 weekly range completely engulfing the prior week’s range. Downside risks point to $90-$91, and $86. Price must get back above $96 to keep the momentum on the side of the buyers.

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