Monday, May 21, 2012
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Dollar struggles near 2-week lows; stocks steady

The dollar hovered near a two-week low against a basket of currencies on Monday and Asian stocks were pinned in tight trading ranges as weak U.S. economic data and fears of a Greek debt default kept many investors on the sidelines.

 European stocks were also set to dip, tracking weakness in Asia, but trading was expected to be thin with holidays in the United States and the UK.

 European Union and IMF officials are likely to deliver their verdict this week on Greece's faltering drive to bring its budget deficit under control.

 Compounding euro zone debt woes, a government minister in Ireland said it may have to ask for another loan from the EU and IMF because it will struggle to return to debt markets to raise funds next year.

 The euro fell to $1.4263 , having pulled back from resistance near $1.4327, its 55-day moving average.

 The single currency, which has bounced off of a two-month low of $1.3968 hit a week ago on trading platform EBS, also faces resistance near $1.4369, the top of the cloud on the daily Ichimoku chart, a technical analysis tool popular among traders.

 Against a basket of currencies , the dollar was trading near the 75 line, just shy of a two-week trough hit in the previous session. more

 

Euro hovers above 2-month low, still seen vulnerable

The euro hovered above a two-month low against the dollar on Tuesday but is seen capped by worries that the euro zone's debt crisis could spread to heavyweights like Spain that had been considered safe from contagion.

 Standard & Poor's cut its outlook for Italy to "negative" from "stable" on Saturday, while a crushing defeat for Spain's ruling socialists in local elections raised worries about Prime Minister Jose Luiz Rodrigo Zapatero's ability to meet fiscal targets. Madrid has been seen as an example of fiscal reform.

 "The huge storm of risk reduction will rip through markets if the focus turns to Spain and Italy. It's clear they don't have money to bail out these countries," said Ayako Sera, a market economist at Sumitomo Trust and Banking.

 "What we are seeing now could just be the beginning of it," she added.

 But euro buying from Asian central banks as well as stable commodity and regional share prices helped stem the euro's decline in Asian trade, with some traders saying that in the near-term there might be a small rebound for the single currency. more

 

Euro clings to gains vs USD, focus on techs

The euro struggled to hold gains against the dollar on Wednesday after its failure to break above a key technical level prompted profit taking, keeping the single currency in a near-term range.

 Higher shares and commodity prices offered some support to riskier currencies including the euro, while the dollar was on the back foot as lower U.S. Treasury yields tarnished the appeal of U.S. assets.

 At the same time, the euro's upside was capped after European finance officials on Tuesday acknowledged that Greece may have to restructure its debts, which raised speculation that Europe's sovereign debt crisis may worsen.

 "If Greece is allowed to restructure in one way or another, it could be taken as a negative for the euro as it could undermine confidence in the euro zone," said Dag Muller, strategist at SEB in Stockholm.

 "In the short-term, this uncertainty will make investors question whether they should still hold their long positions in the euro." more

 

Investors sell into every bounce in euro/dlr

The euro was off its seven-week low against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday but remained vulnerable on the downside as investors took the opportunity to cut bullish bets on every bounce.

 Lingering concerns about the euro zone periphery were also keeping the euro on the back foot, with some traders expecting it to trade in a $1.40-1.4250 range in the next few days.

 "The retracement that we have seen in the euro will continue as we do not expect a positive scenario to emerge from the Ecofin meeting," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist, at Bank of New York Mellon.

 "The risk-off sentiment remains in place and until that is there it's tough for the euro to rise past $1.4250 -- the mid-March highs. I see strong support at $1.40."

 The euro gained some reprieve on Monday after euro zone finance ministers approved an emergency loan programme for Portugal but investors were more interested if policymakers will agree on a deal to rescue Greece. more

 

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