Monday, May 21, 2012
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China unshackles yuan ahead of G20

China's yuan surged on Monday the most since its revaluation in 2005, sending a clear signal ahead of this weekend's G20 summit that Beijing is sticking to its word of allowing greater currency flexibility.

The central bank has maintained the peg since the middle of 2008, a controversial policy aimed at steadying the world's fastest-growing major economy during the global economic downturn.

But the central bank stepped aside on Monday to back up its surprise weekend announcement that it would allow greater flexibility for the yuan, buying some time against Western critics who argue the currency is undervalued and gives China an unfair advantage in world trade.

After the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, set the daily reference point for trading, the yuan rose by 0.45 percent to as high as 6.7969 per dollar -- the biggest intraday rise since China revalued the currency in 2005. >>

FOREX-Euro hits 2-wk high vs dollar but lacks momentum

* Euro briefly hits 2-week high vs dlr EUR= above $1.2350

* Improved risk tolerance supports single currency

* Analysts see upside correction potential, impetus lacking

The euro briefly hit a 2-week high on Wednesday, continuing its correction from a four-year low versus the dollar on improved tolerance for risk, but lacking momentum to tackle nearby resistance levels.

The single currency made a quick show above Tuesday's two-week peak at $1.2350 in early dealing, but by 0940 GMT it had slipped back to trade with slight losses at $1.2300.

"The euro's recent rally can continue. It's been tracking the improvement in risk and the higher-yielding currencies, but for now there's nothing to provide much of an impetus to take it significantly higher," said Stuart Bennett, senior FX strategist at Credit Agricole CIB.

US stocks had rallied strongly on Tuesday .SPX, but European markets couldn't replicate the move and were trading close to flat on the day .FTEU3.

Analysts said the recent recovery in the euro could be classed as a correction within the established downtrend.

"I see the recent rally as a correction from the four-year low at $1.1876 which doesn't negate the downtrend. There is potential for the correction to continue however as there are a lot of stale short positions out there," said Michael Hewson, currency analyst at CMC Markets.

Traders said worries over the credit outlook for Spain had served as a reminder that the euro remained vulnerable, as the premium investors demand to hold 10-year Spanish government bonds over German benchmarks hit a euro lifetime high.

Investors have fretted for more than a week about Spain's credit markets and comments from government sources urging action to free up bank-to-bank lending.

On Tuesday, investors had set aside concerns about the euro zone financial sector and soft economic data to buy riskier assets, higher-yielding currencies and the euro, looking on the bright side after Spain raised 5.2 billion euros at a debt auction and Belgium netted 2.5 billion euros.

Technical analysts were turning increasingly positive on the outlook for the single currency.

"We look for the correction higher to extend to $1.2445/1.2570 - the 2009 low and the 38.2 percent retracement of the move down from April," analysts at Commerzbank said.

The euro was up around 0.4 percent versus the yen at 113.10 yen EURJPY=R, as the Japanese currency weakened. >>

 

China policy outlook murky after mixed bag of data

Chinese inflation quickened to a 19-month high in May, but a moderation of growth in factory output and capital spending eased worries for some analysts that the world's third-largest economy could boil over.

Others took the opposite view, arguing that China needs to stave off the risk of overheating by raising interest rates and letting the yuan strengthen -- as U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner again urged on Thursday.

On balance, soothing comments by the National Bureau of Statistics suggested that the authorities are in no hurry to tighten policy, especially as the European Union, China's biggest export market, is mired in financial difficulties.

Chinese exports leap, put yuan back under microscope

* Chinese exports beat expectations despite Europe worries

* China May exports up 48.5 pct yr/yr, imports up 48.3 pct

* Jump in exports, surplus hands ammunition to U.S. critics

* Chinese economists question if momentum can be sustained

China's exports jumped in May, reassuring investors about the economy's strength but putting pressure on U.S. President Barack Obama to placate critics who say Beijing is keeping the yuan unfairly undervalued.

Imports also grew robustly, testifying to the underlying momentum of the world's third-largest economy despite government steps to cool the red-hot property market.

Some economists said the export surge would be short-lived given debt problems in Europe, the country's biggest overseas market, but several said it would revive a debate about the timing of a long-awaited resumption in the appreciation of the Chinese currency. >>

 

 

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